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Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Are Your Personal Myths Letting You Down? Personal Myths and Systematic Errors in Human Thinking

Years ago I saw a TV show that talked about systematic errors in human thinking, and I've been fascinated by this concept ever since. I believe that most people would describe their thinking as sensible and reasonable. While everyone admits to making mistakes, most people would deny that there are consistent flaws in how they reach conclusions.

The idea of systematic errors is that the brain itself is wired to give wrong results, at least under some circumstances. If this is true, why does it happen? Under what circumstances does it happen? It seems to me that if we can know the answers to these questions, we can guard against these systematic errors, and even offset them.

I find it somewhat disconcerting to realize that I'm at the mercy of how my brain is wired. I like to think of myself as logical, and that my conclusions make sense. When I make systematic errors, I reach invalid conclusions, and the scary part is that I don't even know it.

What are these systematic errors? The TV show that I saw was some time ago, and I can't remember the particulars. A quick search in google returns quite a few examples of systematic errors. One that comes to mind is the halo effect, where it is assumed that someone who has some good characteristics is assumed to have others. Studies show, for example, that good looking people are perceived as more intelligent than others who aren't as good looking. Another example is that people tend to look for data that confirms their hypothesis over data that might deny it.

What brought this to mind after all these years is something I heard the other day on the radio. According to some study, people are generally more optimistic than they should be. People think they will live longer than they do, make more money than they will, etc. This sounds to me like another type of systematic error in the way people think.

So what has this got to do with myths? To explain this, I need to explain what I think a myth is. A simple definition is that a myth is a story shared by a culture. The people in the culture act as though the story is true without any evidence. Individuals may or may not give the story much credence, but they act as though they believe it. It could turn out that the story really is true, but that is immaterial.

There's a lot I could say about this subject. One thing that comes to mind is the question: When is there enough evidence for a story that it passes from the realm of myth into history? For a long time, most historians thought the story of Troy was a myth, but it now turns out there is archeological evidence for the story, so is it still a myth?

Is science a myth? Our culture acts as though science is true. A scientific study sounds convincing, and it used to be thought that science would solve all the world's problems. Are these myths true? A better question for a myth is "Is it relevant?" Does the culture still adopt the myth, or has it been discarded? Western society is beginning to lose faith in the Christian myth. In some ways, the same is happening to the myth of science. What happens to a culture when it loses faith in its myths? Historically, interesting things. Perhaps one day I'll write about paradigm shifts.

It seems to me that myths are an example of a culture's systematic error. This is not to say that myths are not useful to the culture. Quite the contrary. Myths are vital to a culture's well being, and I don't know if a culture can survive without them. The systematic error is that conclusions are reached that aren't based on fact, but on assumptions. In the middle ages, peasants spent their entire lives working on farms because it was God's will (the myth of the divine right of kings). Of course, this wasn't the only factor.

I have noticed that there are stories I believe about myself. These beliefs are a lot like myths, except that they are about me. You might call them fantasies. For example, when I get on the scale and see how much I weigh, I resolve to really follow that diet I've been thinking about. Visions of me eating right and exercising flash through my head, along with a vision of a new and skinnier me.

The difference between these "personal myths" and fantasies is small. The difference I would claim is that fantasying is mainly a pleasurable, harmless activity, whereas personal myths are more like a coping mechanism. I engage my myths when I'm feeling bad about myself. I enjoy playing volleyball, but sometimes I play against people that are considerably better than I am. After a resounding defeat, I imagine myself losing weight, getting in shape, practicing jumping higher, and coming back some day and thoroughly beating them. After several decades of this myth, I am beginning to realize that this will never happen. Myths are hard to give up.

Of course, it's good to have goals. It's good to try and reach beyond yourself, to do things that didn't seem possible. What's the difference between goals and myths? A goal is something that at least theoretically, I could achieve. If I actually worked out, lost weight, and started jumping higher, than I would be working towards a goal, even if I never achieved it. If I only use the myth to make myself feel better after a particularly bad loss, but never act on it, it's just a personal myth.

I believe that practically everyone has personal myths. It might be landing a good job, spending more time with the family, investing for retirement, etc. One example I've run into lately is people who are divorced imagining that sometime in the future they will reconcile with their spouse. How can you tell if you have personal myths? If you find yourself feeling bad, and then imagining some future scenario where the problem is resolved, you may have a personal myth. If you don't actually act on these imaginings, if it's been years and you haven't made any progress towards them, if you're honest with yourself and admit that this will never happen, then you are indulging in personal myths.

Are personal myths bad? Yes and no. They obviously serve some purpose, or you wouldn't have them. They make you feel better, and that's not all bad. I'm never going to be a world class volleyball player, so letting off some steam by imagining that I'm a super player doesn't hurt anything, and may help me from being frustrated.

The real problem with personal myths is that they represent a form of systematic error. By believing in them, you end up making decisions that aren't based on reality. If your myth is that you will reconcile with your estranged spouse, but it's been ten years, and there is no indication that it will happen, perhaps it's time to smell the coffee. You could be wasting your life waiting for something that will never happen, the whole time thinking that it will.

Another problem with personal myths is that they can end up taking the place of real goals. If the myth is enough to satisfy your desire to accomplish something, it may actually keep you from accomplishing it. For example, when I'm mythologizing about being fit, this may satisfy my frustration at being overweight to the extent that I never start exercising. If I remained frustrated, I might become more motivated to do something about my situation.

I like model railroading, and I've been thinking about building a layout in my basement for years. It's my dream. There's nothing really stopping me, but at any moment I always seem to have some excuse for not getting started. I spend time reading magazines about it, and imagining how my layout will be better than those in the articles I read. Is this a personal myth?

What should you do when you discover one of your own personal myths? Most importantly, be honest with yourself. Many myths are leftovers from childhood dreams and goals that didn't pan out. Is it too late? Sometimes. At some point, I realized that I would never be a major league baseball player. This dream eventually turned into a myth, but as time went on, I gave up on the myth as well. Sometimes, the best thing is to let go of the myth.

Sometimes it's not too late. Many people make drastic changes later in life. Is it too late to be an opera singer? A teacher? An artist? I knew one teacher I had who was an architect, and at 37 decided to become a priest. It may not even be that big a deal. Perhaps all you need to do is enroll in some night classes, or take time to visit your grandchildren.

You need to ask yourself how badly you want the myth. Honestly appraise the work it would take, what you would have to give up, and the return you would receive if you achieved the myth. It might be worth making the commitment to turn the myth into a goal. If so, don't wait; start right away. Until you do, it will remain a myth.

In other cases, if you're honest, the myth may be unattainable, or not worth the effort. Sometimes you can find alternatives. In other cases, you may decide to give up the myth. The most important thing is too make decisions based on reality, not on a personal myth.

I hope you'll be a gardener in your field of myths. Weed out the ones that have become obsolete, and fertilize the others so they turn into goals, and ultimately, into accomplished feats.

I have certainly not exhausted this subject. The personal myths I have discussed have all been of the variety, "I will become...". There are personal myths about the past as well. People spend a lot of time and money sorting these out with psychologists. But that's a subject for another time.

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